Spanish general election campaign starts

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Predictions of the 2008 vote in the Basque Country.

The campaign of a general election in Spain started on Friday's 00:00 as a darkening economic outlook and the end of a housing boom and the relationship of pro-independence regions with Spain set the stage for a close-run race.

While neither of the two major parties, the Socialists and the Popular Party, are likely to win an absolute parliamentary majority, nationalist parties from Catalonia and the Basque Country will play an important role when forming government.

Comparisons between Kosovo and Catalonia and the Basque Country have been drawn since the new Balkan state declared its independence. The fact that the creation of new nations within the 21st century Europe is possible is likely to be a recurring theme during the election campaign.

Basque Premier Juan Jose Ibarretxe presented last year a "road map" to peace in the Basque Country that included a referendum in 2008 on the relationship between Spain and the Basque Country. Ibarretxe also announced a negotiation on his proposal would be a condition to receive his party's support in the Spanish parliament, which might be decissive.

Concerning the results of the 2004 vote in the Basque Country, the Basque nationalist parties PNV and EA won 7 and 1 seats in the Spanish parliament, respectively. The socialist party PSOE won 7 and the conservative party PP won 4.

The so-called left-wing nationalist parties did not win any seat as they were banned from the vote over its presumed links to ETA. ANV, other nationalist party, was also banned this year from the vote.

Weaking economy

The Socialists are leading opinion polls by roughly two percentage points over the conservative Popular Party ahead of the vote, but the opposition hopes to capitalise on public concern at the weakening economy.

The Socialists ousted the Popular Party from office in 2004 with a surprise election after the conservatives mishandled their reaction to Islamist bombing attacks on Madrid trains by blaming them on the armed Basque group ETA.

Spain's decade-long economic boom, built on soaring housing prices as well as mounting household debt, has helped keep up support for the government over the past few years. But some Socialist officials are beginning to worry in private that young voters who helped push them into power in 2004 might abstain this time around.

The opposition, which long focused its criticism on the government's handling of failed peace talks with ETA, is now concentrating on the weakening economy. Signs that the housing market is grinding to a halt and the global credit crunch have also rattled Spaniards, while the government has committed two gaffes on the touchy subject of rising inflation just over the last week.